---
_id: '14901'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Global services like navigation, communication, and Earth observation have
increased dramatically in the 21st century due to advances in outer space industries.
But as orbits become increasingly crowded with both satellites and inevitable
space debris pollution, continued operations become endangered by the heightened
risks of debris collisions in orbit. Kessler Syndrome is the term for when a critical
threshold of orbiting debris triggers a runaway positive feedback loop of debris
collisions, creating debris congestion that can render orbits unusable. As this
potential tipping point becomes more widely recognized, there have been renewed
calls for debris mitigation and removal. Here, we combine complex systems and
social-ecological systems approaches to study how these efforts may affect space
debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching Kessler Syndrome. Specifically,
we model how debris levels are affected by future launch rates, cleanup activities,
and collisions between extant debris. We contextualize and interpret our dynamic
model within a discussion of existing space debris governance and other social,
economic, and geopolitical factors that may influence effective collective management
of the orbital commons. In line with previous studies, our model finds that debris
congestion may be reached in less than 200 years, though a holistic management
strategy combining removal and mitigation actions can avoid such outcomes while
continuing space activities. Moreover, although active debris removal may be particularly
effective, the current lack of market and governance support may impede its implementation.
Research into these critical dynamics and the multi-faceted variables that influence
debris outcomes can support policymakers in curating impactful governance strategies
and realistic transition pathways to sustaining debris-free orbits. Overall, our
study is useful for communicating about space debris sustainability in policy
and education settings by providing an exploration of policy portfolio options
supported by a simple and clear social-ecological modeling approach.
acknowledgement: The authors would like to thank the special issue co-editors, Marco
Janssen and Xiao-Shan Yap, and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped
improve the manuscript. The paper also benefited from suggestions by other author
participants in this special issue. We would also like to thank the 2022 Santa Fe
Institute Complex Systems Summer School for providing space to initiate this study.
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Keiko
full_name: Nomura, Keiko
last_name: Nomura
- first_name: Simon
full_name: Rella, Simon
id: B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425
last_name: Rella
- first_name: Haily
full_name: Merritt, Haily
last_name: Merritt
- first_name: Mathieu
full_name: Baltussen, Mathieu
last_name: Baltussen
- first_name: Darcy
full_name: Bird, Darcy
last_name: Bird
- first_name: Annika
full_name: Tjuka, Annika
last_name: Tjuka
- first_name: Dan
full_name: Falk, Dan
last_name: Falk
citation:
ama: Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, et al. Tipping points of space debris in low
earth orbit. International Journal of the Commons. 2024;18(1). doi:10.5334/ijc.1275
apa: Nomura, K., Rella, S., Merritt, H., Baltussen, M., Bird, D., Tjuka, A., &
Falk, D. (2024). Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. International
Journal of the Commons. Ubiquity Press. https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275
chicago: Nomura, Keiko, Simon Rella, Haily Merritt, Mathieu Baltussen, Darcy Bird,
Annika Tjuka, and Dan Falk. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.”
International Journal of the Commons. Ubiquity Press, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275.
ieee: K. Nomura et al., “Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit,”
International Journal of the Commons, vol. 18, no. 1. Ubiquity Press, 2024.
ista: Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, Baltussen M, Bird D, Tjuka A, Falk D. 2024.
Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. International Journal of the
Commons. 18(1).
mla: Nomura, Keiko, et al. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.”
International Journal of the Commons, vol. 18, no. 1, Ubiquity Press, 2024,
doi:10.5334/ijc.1275.
short: K. Nomura, S. Rella, H. Merritt, M. Baltussen, D. Bird, A. Tjuka, D. Falk,
International Journal of the Commons 18 (2024).
date_created: 2024-01-30T11:58:02Z
date_published: 2024-01-11T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2024-02-05T10:10:27Z
day: '11'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: GradSch
- _id: GaTk
doi: 10.5334/ijc.1275
file:
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checksum: b80ebc889033c365d8f8c05a0c655382
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2024-02-05T10:06:35Z
date_updated: 2024-02-05T10:06:35Z
file_id: '14939'
file_name: 2023_IntJourCommons_Nomura.pdf
file_size: 1305786
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2024-02-05T10:06:35Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 18'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- Sociology and Political Science
language:
- iso: eng
month: '01'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: International Journal of the Commons
publication_identifier:
issn:
- 1875-0281
publication_status: published
publisher: Ubiquity Press
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 18
year: '2024'
...
---
_id: '14862'
article_number: ckad160.597
article_processing_charge: No
author:
- first_name: Simon
full_name: Rella, Simon
id: B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425
last_name: Rella
- first_name: Y
full_name: Kulikova, Y
last_name: Kulikova
- first_name: Aygul
full_name: Minnegalieva, Aygul
id: 87DF77F0-1D9A-11EA-B6AE-CE443DDC885E
last_name: Minnegalieva
- first_name: Fyodor
full_name: Kondrashov, Fyodor
id: 44FDEF62-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Kondrashov
orcid: 0000-0001-8243-4694
citation:
ama: 'Rella S, Kulikova Y, Minnegalieva A, Kondrashov F. Complex vaccination strategies
prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. In: European Journal of Public
Health. Vol 33. Oxford University Press; 2023. doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597'
apa: Rella, S., Kulikova, Y., Minnegalieva, A., & Kondrashov, F. (2023). Complex
vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. In European
Journal of Public Health (Vol. 33). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597
chicago: Rella, Simon, Y Kulikova, Aygul Minnegalieva, and Fyodor Kondrashov. “Complex
Vaccination Strategies Prevent the Emergence of Vaccine Resistance.” In European
Journal of Public Health, Vol. 33. Oxford University Press, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597.
ieee: S. Rella, Y. Kulikova, A. Minnegalieva, and F. Kondrashov, “Complex vaccination
strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance,” in European Journal
of Public Health, 2023, vol. 33, no. Supplement_2.
ista: Rella S, Kulikova Y, Minnegalieva A, Kondrashov F. 2023. Complex vaccination
strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. European Journal of Public
Health. vol. 33, ckad160.597.
mla: Rella, Simon, et al. “Complex Vaccination Strategies Prevent the Emergence
of Vaccine Resistance.” European Journal of Public Health, vol. 33, no.
Supplement_2, ckad160.597, Oxford University Press, 2023, doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597.
short: S. Rella, Y. Kulikova, A. Minnegalieva, F. Kondrashov, in:, European Journal
of Public Health, Oxford University Press, 2023.
date_created: 2024-01-22T12:02:28Z
date_published: 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2024-01-24T11:16:09Z
day: '01'
ddc:
- '570'
department:
- _id: GaTk
doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 98706755bb4cc5d553818ade7660a7d2
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2024-01-24T11:12:33Z
date_updated: 2024-01-24T11:12:33Z
file_id: '14882'
file_name: 2023_EurJourPublicHealth_Rella.pdf
file_size: 71057
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2024-01-24T11:12:33Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 33'
issue: Supplement_2
keyword:
- Public Health
- Environmental and Occupational Health
language:
- iso: eng
month: '10'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: European Journal of Public Health
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1464-360X
issn:
- 1101-1262
publication_status: published
publisher: Oxford University Press
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance
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image: /images/cc_by_nc.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC (4.0)
type: conference_abstract
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 33
year: '2023'
...
---
_id: '9905'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the
ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains
may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health,
economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize
the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic
dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence
and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission,
we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate
of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on
the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that
a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant
strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions
happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated
the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently,
we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination
campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment.
Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining
non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout
the entire vaccination period.
acknowledgement: We thank Alexey Kondrashov, Nick Machnik, Raimundo Julian Saona Urmeneta,
Gasper Tkacik and Nick Barton for fruitful discussions. We also thank participants
of EvoLunch seminar at IST Austria and the internal seminar at the Banco de España
for useful comments. The opinions expressed in this document are exclusively of
the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco
de España or the Eurosystem. ETD is supported by the Swiss National Science and
Louis Jeantet Foundation. The work of FAK was in part supported by the ERC Consolidator
Grant (771209-CharFL).
article_number: '15729'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Simon
full_name: Rella, Simon
id: B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425
last_name: Rella
- first_name: Yuliya A.
full_name: Kulikova, Yuliya A.
last_name: Kulikova
- first_name: Emmanouil T.
full_name: Dermitzakis, Emmanouil T.
last_name: Dermitzakis
- first_name: Fyodor
full_name: Kondrashov, Fyodor
id: 44FDEF62-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Kondrashov
orcid: 0000-0001-8243-4694
citation:
ama: Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports.
2021;11(1). doi:10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
apa: Rella, S., Kulikova, Y. A., Dermitzakis, E. T., & Kondrashov, F. (2021).
Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant
strains. Scientific Reports. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
chicago: Rella, Simon, Yuliya A. Kulikova, Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis, and Fyodor
Kondrashov. “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Vaccination Impact the Fate
of Vaccine-Resistant Strains.” Scientific Reports. Springer Nature, 2021.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3.
ieee: S. Rella, Y. A. Kulikova, E. T. Dermitzakis, and F. Kondrashov, “Rates of
SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains,”
Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no. 1. Springer Nature, 2021.
ista: Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. 2021. Rates of SARS-CoV-2
transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific
Reports. 11(1), 15729.
mla: Rella, Simon, et al. “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Vaccination Impact
the Fate of Vaccine-Resistant Strains.” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no.
1, 15729, Springer Nature, 2021, doi:10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3.
short: S. Rella, Y.A. Kulikova, E.T. Dermitzakis, F. Kondrashov, Scientific Reports
11 (2021).
date_created: 2021-08-15T22:01:26Z
date_published: 2021-07-30T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2023-08-11T10:42:58Z
day: '30'
ddc:
- '570'
- '610'
department:
- _id: FyKo
doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
isi:
- '000683329100001'
pmid:
- '34330988'
file:
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checksum: ac86892ed17e6724c7251844da5cef5c
content_type: application/pdf
creator: asandaue
date_created: 2021-08-16T11:36:49Z
date_updated: 2021-08-16T11:36:49Z
file_id: '9927'
file_name: 2021_ScientificReports_Rella.pdf
file_size: 3432001
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2021-08-16T11:36:49Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 11'
isi: 1
issue: '1'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
pmid: 1
project:
- _id: 26580278-B435-11E9-9278-68D0E5697425
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '771209'
name: Characterizing the fitness landscape on population and global scales
publication: Scientific Reports
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- '20452322'
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
related_material:
link:
- description: News on IST Website
relation: press_release
url: https://ist.ac.at/en/news/counterintuitive-dynamics-threaten-the-end-of-the-pandemic/
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant
strains
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 4359f0d1-fa6c-11eb-b949-802e58b17ae8
volume: 11
year: '2021'
...