[{"department":[{"_id":"GradSch"},{"_id":"GaTk"}],"file":[{"date_created":"2024-02-05T10:06:35Z","file_id":"14939","relation":"main_file","creator":"dernst","file_size":1305786,"file_name":"2023_IntJourCommons_Nomura.pdf","date_updated":"2024-02-05T10:06:35Z","success":1,"access_level":"open_access","checksum":"b80ebc889033c365d8f8c05a0c655382","content_type":"application/pdf"}],"tmp":{"short":"CC BY (4.0)","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"oa_version":"Published Version","author":[{"full_name":"Nomura, Keiko","last_name":"Nomura","first_name":"Keiko"},{"id":"B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425","first_name":"Simon","last_name":"Rella","full_name":"Rella, Simon"},{"first_name":"Haily","last_name":"Merritt","full_name":"Merritt, Haily"},{"full_name":"Baltussen, Mathieu","last_name":"Baltussen","first_name":"Mathieu"},{"first_name":"Darcy","last_name":"Bird","full_name":"Bird, Darcy"},{"last_name":"Tjuka","full_name":"Tjuka, Annika","first_name":"Annika"},{"last_name":"Falk","full_name":"Falk, Dan","first_name":"Dan"}],"month":"01","_id":"14901","doi":"10.5334/ijc.1275","date_published":"2024-01-11T00:00:00Z","oa":1,"publication":"International Journal of the Commons","intvolume":"        18","publication_status":"published","quality_controlled":"1","issue":"1","type":"journal_article","file_date_updated":"2024-02-05T10:06:35Z","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"publication_identifier":{"issn":["1875-0281"]},"keyword":["Sociology and Political Science"],"article_processing_charge":"Yes","title":"Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit","publisher":"Ubiquity Press","date_updated":"2024-02-05T10:10:27Z","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","ddc":["550"],"year":"2024","date_created":"2024-01-30T11:58:02Z","acknowledgement":"The authors would like to thank the special issue co-editors, Marco Janssen and Xiao-Shan Yap, and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improve the manuscript. The paper also benefited from suggestions by other author participants in this special issue. We would also like to thank the 2022 Santa Fe Institute Complex Systems Summer School for providing space to initiate this study.","volume":18,"status":"public","article_type":"original","scopus_import":"1","has_accepted_license":"1","citation":{"mla":"Nomura, Keiko, et al. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.” <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>, vol. 18, no. 1, Ubiquity Press, 2024, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">10.5334/ijc.1275</a>.","ieee":"K. Nomura <i>et al.</i>, “Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit,” <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>, vol. 18, no. 1. Ubiquity Press, 2024.","short":"K. Nomura, S. Rella, H. Merritt, M. Baltussen, D. Bird, A. Tjuka, D. Falk, International Journal of the Commons 18 (2024).","ama":"Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, et al. Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>. 2024;18(1). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">10.5334/ijc.1275</a>","ista":"Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, Baltussen M, Bird D, Tjuka A, Falk D. 2024. Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. International Journal of the Commons. 18(1).","chicago":"Nomura, Keiko, Simon Rella, Haily Merritt, Mathieu Baltussen, Darcy Bird, Annika Tjuka, and Dan Falk. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.” <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>. Ubiquity Press, 2024. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275</a>.","apa":"Nomura, K., Rella, S., Merritt, H., Baltussen, M., Bird, D., Tjuka, A., &#38; Falk, D. (2024). Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>. Ubiquity Press. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275</a>"},"day":"11","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Global services like navigation, communication, and Earth observation have increased dramatically in the 21st century due to advances in outer space industries. But as orbits become increasingly crowded with both satellites and inevitable space debris pollution, continued operations become endangered by the heightened risks of debris collisions in orbit. Kessler Syndrome is the term for when a critical threshold of orbiting debris triggers a runaway positive feedback loop of debris collisions, creating debris congestion that can render orbits unusable. As this potential tipping point becomes more widely recognized, there have been renewed calls for debris mitigation and removal. Here, we combine complex systems and social-ecological systems approaches to study how these efforts may affect space debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching Kessler Syndrome. Specifically, we model how debris levels are affected by future launch rates, cleanup activities, and collisions between extant debris. We contextualize and interpret our dynamic model within a discussion of existing space debris governance and other social, economic, and geopolitical factors that may influence effective collective management of the orbital commons. In line with previous studies, our model finds that debris congestion may be reached in less than 200 years, though a holistic management strategy combining removal and mitigation actions can avoid such outcomes while continuing space activities. Moreover, although active debris removal may be particularly effective, the current lack of market and governance support may impede its implementation. Research into these critical dynamics and the multi-faceted variables that influence debris outcomes can support policymakers in curating impactful governance strategies and realistic transition pathways to sustaining debris-free orbits. Overall, our study is useful for communicating about space debris sustainability in policy and education settings by providing an exploration of policy portfolio options supported by a simple and clear social-ecological modeling approach."}],"license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"issue":"Supplement_2","type":"conference_abstract","file_date_updated":"2024-01-24T11:12:33Z","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1101-1262"],"eissn":["1464-360X"]},"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"keyword":["Public Health","Environmental and Occupational Health"],"oa":1,"intvolume":"        33","publication":"European Journal of Public Health","publication_status":"published","quality_controlled":"1","month":"10","_id":"14862","date_published":"2023-10-01T00:00:00Z","doi":"10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597","oa_version":"Published Version","author":[{"id":"B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425","first_name":"Simon","last_name":"Rella","full_name":"Rella, Simon"},{"full_name":"Kulikova, Y","last_name":"Kulikova","first_name":"Y"},{"last_name":"Minnegalieva","full_name":"Minnegalieva, Aygul","id":"87DF77F0-1D9A-11EA-B6AE-CE443DDC885E","first_name":"Aygul"},{"full_name":"Kondrashov, Fyodor","orcid":"0000-0001-8243-4694","last_name":"Kondrashov","first_name":"Fyodor","id":"44FDEF62-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87"}],"tmp":{"image":"/images/cc_by_nc.png","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode","name":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)","short":"CC BY-NC (4.0)"},"department":[{"_id":"GaTk"}],"file":[{"file_name":"2023_EurJourPublicHealth_Rella.pdf","date_updated":"2024-01-24T11:12:33Z","success":1,"checksum":"98706755bb4cc5d553818ade7660a7d2","content_type":"application/pdf","access_level":"open_access","file_id":"14882","relation":"main_file","date_created":"2024-01-24T11:12:33Z","file_size":71057,"creator":"dernst"}],"license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/","citation":{"ieee":"S. Rella, Y. Kulikova, A. Minnegalieva, and F. Kondrashov, “Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance,” in <i>European Journal of Public Health</i>, 2023, vol. 33, no. Supplement_2.","mla":"Rella, Simon, et al. “Complex Vaccination Strategies Prevent the Emergence of Vaccine Resistance.” <i>European Journal of Public Health</i>, vol. 33, no. Supplement_2, ckad160.597, Oxford University Press, 2023, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597\">10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597</a>.","ista":"Rella S, Kulikova Y, Minnegalieva A, Kondrashov F. 2023. Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. European Journal of Public Health. vol. 33, ckad160.597.","chicago":"Rella, Simon, Y Kulikova, Aygul Minnegalieva, and Fyodor Kondrashov. “Complex Vaccination Strategies Prevent the Emergence of Vaccine Resistance.” In <i>European Journal of Public Health</i>, Vol. 33. Oxford University Press, 2023. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597\">https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597</a>.","ama":"Rella S, Kulikova Y, Minnegalieva A, Kondrashov F. Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. In: <i>European Journal of Public Health</i>. Vol 33. Oxford University Press; 2023. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597\">10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597</a>","apa":"Rella, S., Kulikova, Y., Minnegalieva, A., &#38; Kondrashov, F. (2023). Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. In <i>European Journal of Public Health</i> (Vol. 33). Oxford University Press. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597\">https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.597</a>","short":"S. Rella, Y. Kulikova, A. Minnegalieva, F. Kondrashov, in:, European Journal of Public Health, Oxford University Press, 2023."},"day":"01","has_accepted_license":"1","status":"public","year":"2023","date_created":"2024-01-22T12:02:28Z","volume":33,"date_updated":"2024-01-24T11:16:09Z","publisher":"Oxford University Press","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","ddc":["570"],"article_processing_charge":"No","title":"Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance","article_number":"ckad160.597"},{"type":"journal_article","issue":"1","publication_identifier":{"eissn":["20452322"]},"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"file_date_updated":"2021-08-16T11:36:49Z","month":"07","external_id":{"isi":["000683329100001"],"pmid":["34330988"]},"date_published":"2021-07-30T00:00:00Z","doi":"10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3","_id":"9905","intvolume":"        11","publication":"Scientific Reports","oa":1,"quality_controlled":"1","publication_status":"published","author":[{"first_name":"Simon","id":"B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425","full_name":"Rella, Simon","last_name":"Rella"},{"last_name":"Kulikova","full_name":"Kulikova, Yuliya A.","first_name":"Yuliya A."},{"first_name":"Emmanouil T.","last_name":"Dermitzakis","full_name":"Dermitzakis, Emmanouil T."},{"orcid":"0000-0001-8243-4694","full_name":"Kondrashov, Fyodor","last_name":"Kondrashov","first_name":"Fyodor","id":"44FDEF62-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87"}],"oa_version":"Published Version","department":[{"_id":"FyKo"}],"ec_funded":1,"file":[{"date_updated":"2021-08-16T11:36:49Z","file_name":"2021_ScientificReports_Rella.pdf","success":1,"access_level":"open_access","content_type":"application/pdf","checksum":"ac86892ed17e6724c7251844da5cef5c","creator":"asandaue","file_size":3432001,"date_created":"2021-08-16T11:36:49Z","file_id":"9927","relation":"main_file"}],"tmp":{"short":"CC BY (4.0)","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"citation":{"chicago":"Rella, Simon, Yuliya A. Kulikova, Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis, and Fyodor Kondrashov. “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Vaccination Impact the Fate of Vaccine-Resistant Strains.” <i>Scientific Reports</i>. Springer Nature, 2021. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3</a>.","ama":"Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. <i>Scientific Reports</i>. 2021;11(1). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3\">10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3</a>","ista":"Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. 2021. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports. 11(1), 15729.","apa":"Rella, S., Kulikova, Y. A., Dermitzakis, E. T., &#38; Kondrashov, F. (2021). Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. <i>Scientific Reports</i>. Springer Nature. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3</a>","short":"S. Rella, Y.A. Kulikova, E.T. Dermitzakis, F. Kondrashov, Scientific Reports 11 (2021).","ieee":"S. Rella, Y. A. Kulikova, E. T. Dermitzakis, and F. Kondrashov, “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains,” <i>Scientific Reports</i>, vol. 11, no. 1. Springer Nature, 2021.","mla":"Rella, Simon, et al. “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Vaccination Impact the Fate of Vaccine-Resistant Strains.” <i>Scientific Reports</i>, vol. 11, no. 1, 15729, Springer Nature, 2021, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3\">10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3</a>."},"isi":1,"day":"30","abstract":[{"text":"Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.","lang":"eng"}],"scopus_import":"1","related_material":{"link":[{"relation":"press_release","description":"News on IST Website","url":"https://ist.ac.at/en/news/counterintuitive-dynamics-threaten-the-end-of-the-pandemic/"}]},"has_accepted_license":"1","date_created":"2021-08-15T22:01:26Z","year":"2021","volume":11,"acknowledgement":"We thank Alexey Kondrashov, Nick Machnik, Raimundo Julian Saona Urmeneta, Gasper Tkacik and Nick Barton for fruitful discussions. We also thank participants of EvoLunch seminar at IST Austria and the internal seminar at the Banco de España for useful comments. The opinions expressed in this document are exclusively of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem. ETD is supported by the Swiss National Science and Louis Jeantet Foundation. The work of FAK was in part supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant (771209-CharFL).","article_type":"original","project":[{"_id":"26580278-B435-11E9-9278-68D0E5697425","grant_number":"771209","name":"Characterizing the fitness landscape on population and global scales","call_identifier":"H2020"}],"status":"public","title":"Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains","pmid":1,"article_processing_charge":"Yes","article_number":"15729","user_id":"4359f0d1-fa6c-11eb-b949-802e58b17ae8","publisher":"Springer Nature","date_updated":"2023-08-11T10:42:58Z","ddc":["570","610"]}]