---
_id: '14901'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Global services like navigation, communication, and Earth observation have
increased dramatically in the 21st century due to advances in outer space industries.
But as orbits become increasingly crowded with both satellites and inevitable
space debris pollution, continued operations become endangered by the heightened
risks of debris collisions in orbit. Kessler Syndrome is the term for when a critical
threshold of orbiting debris triggers a runaway positive feedback loop of debris
collisions, creating debris congestion that can render orbits unusable. As this
potential tipping point becomes more widely recognized, there have been renewed
calls for debris mitigation and removal. Here, we combine complex systems and
social-ecological systems approaches to study how these efforts may affect space
debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching Kessler Syndrome. Specifically,
we model how debris levels are affected by future launch rates, cleanup activities,
and collisions between extant debris. We contextualize and interpret our dynamic
model within a discussion of existing space debris governance and other social,
economic, and geopolitical factors that may influence effective collective management
of the orbital commons. In line with previous studies, our model finds that debris
congestion may be reached in less than 200 years, though a holistic management
strategy combining removal and mitigation actions can avoid such outcomes while
continuing space activities. Moreover, although active debris removal may be particularly
effective, the current lack of market and governance support may impede its implementation.
Research into these critical dynamics and the multi-faceted variables that influence
debris outcomes can support policymakers in curating impactful governance strategies
and realistic transition pathways to sustaining debris-free orbits. Overall, our
study is useful for communicating about space debris sustainability in policy
and education settings by providing an exploration of policy portfolio options
supported by a simple and clear social-ecological modeling approach.
acknowledgement: The authors would like to thank the special issue co-editors, Marco
Janssen and Xiao-Shan Yap, and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped
improve the manuscript. The paper also benefited from suggestions by other author
participants in this special issue. We would also like to thank the 2022 Santa Fe
Institute Complex Systems Summer School for providing space to initiate this study.
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Keiko
full_name: Nomura, Keiko
last_name: Nomura
- first_name: Simon
full_name: Rella, Simon
id: B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425
last_name: Rella
- first_name: Haily
full_name: Merritt, Haily
last_name: Merritt
- first_name: Mathieu
full_name: Baltussen, Mathieu
last_name: Baltussen
- first_name: Darcy
full_name: Bird, Darcy
last_name: Bird
- first_name: Annika
full_name: Tjuka, Annika
last_name: Tjuka
- first_name: Dan
full_name: Falk, Dan
last_name: Falk
citation:
ama: Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, et al. Tipping points of space debris in low
earth orbit. International Journal of the Commons. 2024;18(1). doi:10.5334/ijc.1275
apa: Nomura, K., Rella, S., Merritt, H., Baltussen, M., Bird, D., Tjuka, A., &
Falk, D. (2024). Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. International
Journal of the Commons. Ubiquity Press. https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275
chicago: Nomura, Keiko, Simon Rella, Haily Merritt, Mathieu Baltussen, Darcy Bird,
Annika Tjuka, and Dan Falk. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.”
International Journal of the Commons. Ubiquity Press, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275.
ieee: K. Nomura et al., “Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit,”
International Journal of the Commons, vol. 18, no. 1. Ubiquity Press, 2024.
ista: Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, Baltussen M, Bird D, Tjuka A, Falk D. 2024.
Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. International Journal of the
Commons. 18(1).
mla: Nomura, Keiko, et al. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.”
International Journal of the Commons, vol. 18, no. 1, Ubiquity Press, 2024,
doi:10.5334/ijc.1275.
short: K. Nomura, S. Rella, H. Merritt, M. Baltussen, D. Bird, A. Tjuka, D. Falk,
International Journal of the Commons 18 (2024).
date_created: 2024-01-30T11:58:02Z
date_published: 2024-01-11T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2024-02-05T10:10:27Z
day: '11'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: GradSch
- _id: GaTk
doi: 10.5334/ijc.1275
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: b80ebc889033c365d8f8c05a0c655382
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2024-02-05T10:06:35Z
date_updated: 2024-02-05T10:06:35Z
file_id: '14939'
file_name: 2023_IntJourCommons_Nomura.pdf
file_size: 1305786
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2024-02-05T10:06:35Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 18'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- Sociology and Political Science
language:
- iso: eng
month: '01'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: International Journal of the Commons
publication_identifier:
issn:
- 1875-0281
publication_status: published
publisher: Ubiquity Press
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 18
year: '2024'
...