[{"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Cumulus parameterization (CP) in state‐of‐the‐art global climate models is based on the quasi‐equilibrium assumption (QEA), which views convection as the action of an ensemble of cumulus clouds, in a state of equilibrium with respect to a slowly varying atmospheric state. This view is not compatible with the organization and dynamical interactions across multiple scales of cloud systems in the tropics and progress in this research area was slow over decades despite the widely recognized major shortcomings. Novel ideas on how to represent key physical processes of moist convection‐large‐scale interaction to overcome the QEA have surged recently. The stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) CP in particular mimics the dynamical interactions of multiple cloud types that characterize organized tropical convection. Here, the SMCM is used to modify the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) CP by changing the way in which the bulk mass flux and bulk entrainment and detrainment rates are calculated. This is done by introducing a stochastic ensemble of plumes characterized by randomly varying detrainment level distributions based on the cloud area fraction of the SMCM. The SMCM is here extended to include shallow cumulus clouds resulting in a unified shallow‐deep CP. The new stochastic multicloud plume CP is validated against the control ZM scheme in the context of the single column Community Climate Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research using data from both tropical ocean and midlatitude land convection. Some key features of the SMCM CP such as it capability to represent the tri‐modal nature of organized convection are emphasized."}],"author":[{"first_name":"B.","last_name":"Khouider","full_name":"Khouider, B."},{"first_name":"BIDYUT B","last_name":"GOSWAMI","full_name":"GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B","orcid":"0000-0001-8602-3083","id":"3a4ac09c-6d61-11ec-bf66-884cde66b64b"},{"last_name":"Phani","full_name":"Phani, R.","first_name":"R."},{"last_name":"Majda","full_name":"Majda, A. J.","first_name":"A. J."}],"keyword":["General Earth and Planetary Sciences","Environmental Chemistry","Global and Planetary Change"],"publication_status":"published","citation":{"short":"B. Khouider, B.B. GOSWAMI, R. Phani, A.J. Majda, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 15 (2023).","ista":"Khouider B, GOSWAMI BB, Phani R, Majda AJ. 2023. A shallow‐deep unified stochastic mass flux cumulus parameterization in the single column community climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 15(11), e2022MS003391.","ama":"Khouider B, GOSWAMI BB, Phani R, Majda AJ. A shallow‐deep unified stochastic mass flux cumulus parameterization in the single column community climate model. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. 2023;15(11). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003391\">10.1029/2022ms003391</a>","mla":"Khouider, B., et al. “A Shallow‐deep Unified Stochastic Mass Flux Cumulus Parameterization in the Single Column Community Climate Model.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 15, no. 11, e2022MS003391, American Geophysical Union, 2023, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003391\">10.1029/2022ms003391</a>.","chicago":"Khouider, B., BIDYUT B GOSWAMI, R. Phani, and A. J. Majda. “A Shallow‐deep Unified Stochastic Mass Flux Cumulus Parameterization in the Single Column Community Climate Model.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union, 2023. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003391\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003391</a>.","ieee":"B. Khouider, B. B. GOSWAMI, R. Phani, and A. J. Majda, “A shallow‐deep unified stochastic mass flux cumulus parameterization in the single column community climate model,” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 15, no. 11. American Geophysical Union, 2023.","apa":"Khouider, B., GOSWAMI, B. B., Phani, R., &#38; Majda, A. J. (2023). A shallow‐deep unified stochastic mass flux cumulus parameterization in the single column community climate model. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003391\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003391</a>"},"_id":"14564","publication_identifier":{"eissn":["1942-2466"]},"user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","acknowledgement":"The research of B.K. is supported in part by a Discovery Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-04246-2020). This research was conducted during the visits of P.M. Krishna to the Center for Prototype Climate Models at NYU Abu Dhabi and University of Victoria from November 2018 to June 2019 and July 2019 and October 2019, respectively. The authors are very grateful to the three anonymous reviewers who provided very thoughtful and constructive comments during the review process that helped greatly improve and shape the final version of the manuscript.","oa_version":"Published Version","quality_controlled":"1","volume":15,"oa":1,"date_updated":"2023-11-28T12:04:42Z","article_processing_charge":"Yes","title":"A shallow‐deep unified stochastic mass flux cumulus parameterization in the single column community climate model","doi":"10.1029/2022ms003391","year":"2023","ddc":["550"],"tmp":{"legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode","image":"/images/cc_by_nc.png","name":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)","short":"CC BY-NC (4.0)"},"article_number":"e2022MS003391","intvolume":"        15","status":"public","day":"01","type":"journal_article","issue":"11","publication":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","file_date_updated":"2023-11-20T11:29:16Z","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","scopus_import":"1","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"month":"11","date_published":"2023-11-01T00:00:00Z","article_type":"original","file":[{"access_level":"open_access","date_updated":"2023-11-20T11:29:16Z","checksum":"e30329dd985559de0ddc7021ca7382b4","date_created":"2023-11-20T11:29:16Z","file_size":6435697,"file_name":"2023_JAMES_Khoulder.pdf","file_id":"14582","creator":"dernst","relation":"main_file","content_type":"application/pdf","success":1}],"date_created":"2023-11-20T09:18:21Z","has_accepted_license":"1","department":[{"_id":"CaMu"}]},{"publisher":"Springer Nature","scopus_import":"1","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"month":"08","date_published":"2022-08-30T00:00:00Z","article_type":"original","file":[{"date_created":"2022-09-05T08:29:27Z","checksum":"38071d5c142bb76f8c8665dc374838a8","file_name":"2022_ClimateChange_Goswami.pdf","file_size":1350575,"date_updated":"2022-09-05T08:29:27Z","access_level":"open_access","success":1,"file_id":"12021","creator":"dernst","content_type":"application/pdf","relation":"main_file"}],"date_created":"2022-09-03T07:24:13Z","has_accepted_license":"1","intvolume":"       173","status":"public","day":"30","type":"journal_article","issue":"3-4","publication":"Climatic Change","file_date_updated":"2022-09-05T08:29:27Z","title":"Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon","year":"2022","doi":"10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8","ddc":["550"],"tmp":{"image":"/images/cc_by.png","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","short":"CC BY (4.0)"},"article_number":"29","abstract":[{"text":"The Tibetan plateau (TP) plays an important role in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) dynamics as a heat source during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. A significant contribution to the pre-monsoon TP heating comes from the sensible heat flux (SHF), which depend on the surface properties. A glaciated surface would have a different SHF compared to a non-glaciated surface. Therefore, the TP glaciers potentially can also impact the hydrological cycle in the Asian continent by impacting the ASM rainfall via its contribution to the total plateau heating. However, there is no assessment of this putative link available. Here, we attempt to qualitatively study the role of TP glaciers on ASM by analyzing the sensitivity of an atmospheric model to the absence of TP glaciers. We find that the absence of the glaciers is most felt in climatologically less snowy regions (which are mostly located at the south-central boundary of the TP during the pre-monsoon season), which leads to positive SHF anomalies. The resulting positive diabatic heating leads to rising air in the eastern TP and sinking air in the western TP. This altered circulation in turn leads to a positive SHF memory in the western TP, which persists until the end of the monsoon season. The impact of SHF anomalies on diabatic heating results in a large-scale subsidence over the ASM domain. The net result is a reduced seasonal ASM rainfall. Given the relentless warming and the vulnerability of glaciers to warming, this is another flag in the ASM variability and change that needs further attention.","lang":"eng"}],"author":[{"id":"3a4ac09c-6d61-11ec-bf66-884cde66b64b","first_name":"BIDYUT B","last_name":"GOSWAMI","full_name":"GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B"},{"first_name":"Soon-Il","last_name":"An","full_name":"An, Soon-Il"},{"last_name":"Murtugudde","full_name":"Murtugudde, Raghu","first_name":"Raghu"}],"keyword":["Atmospheric Science","Global and Planetary Change"],"publication_status":"published","citation":{"chicago":"GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B, Soon-Il An, and Raghu Murtugudde. “Role of the Tibetan Plateau Glaciers in the Asian Summer Monsoon.” <i>Climatic Change</i>. Springer Nature, 2022. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8</a>.","ieee":"B. B. GOSWAMI, S.-I. An, and R. Murtugudde, “Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon,” <i>Climatic Change</i>, vol. 173, no. 3–4. Springer Nature, 2022.","apa":"GOSWAMI, B. B., An, S.-I., &#38; Murtugudde, R. (2022). Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon. <i>Climatic Change</i>. Springer Nature. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8</a>","short":"B.B. GOSWAMI, S.-I. An, R. Murtugudde, Climatic Change 173 (2022).","ista":"GOSWAMI BB, An S-I, Murtugudde R. 2022. Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon. Climatic Change. 173(3–4), 29.","mla":"GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B., et al. “Role of the Tibetan Plateau Glaciers in the Asian Summer Monsoon.” <i>Climatic Change</i>, vol. 173, no. 3–4, 29, Springer Nature, 2022, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8\">10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8</a>.","ama":"GOSWAMI BB, An S-I, Murtugudde R. Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon. <i>Climatic Change</i>. 2022;173(3-4). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8\">10.1007/s10584-022-03426-8</a>"},"_id":"12007","extern":"1","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0165-0009","1573-1480"]},"acknowledgement":"This research is funded by the IRCC research funding.","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","quality_controlled":"1","oa_version":"Published Version","volume":173,"oa":1,"date_updated":"2022-09-05T08:33:33Z","article_processing_charge":"No"},{"file_date_updated":"2021-08-11T12:23:01Z","publication":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","issue":"2","status":"public","intvolume":"        13","type":"journal_article","day":"01","file":[{"success":1,"relation":"main_file","content_type":"application/pdf","file_id":"9881","creator":"kschuh","file_size":1947936,"file_name":"2021_JAMES_Fildier.pdf","checksum":"591ce69b7a36f24346d2061ac712f0f4","date_created":"2021-08-11T12:23:01Z","access_level":"open_access","date_updated":"2021-08-11T12:23:01Z"}],"date_created":"2021-02-15T15:10:01Z","has_accepted_license":"1","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"scopus_import":"1","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","date_published":"2021-02-01T00:00:00Z","article_type":"original","month":"02","oa_version":"Published Version","quality_controlled":"1","user_id":"8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9","extern":"1","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1942-2466","1942-2466"]},"_id":"9151","article_processing_charge":"No","volume":13,"oa":1,"date_updated":"2022-01-24T12:26:01Z","author":[{"first_name":"Benjamin","full_name":"Fildier, Benjamin","last_name":"Fildier"},{"last_name":"Collins","full_name":"Collins, William D.","first_name":"William D."},{"id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","first_name":"Caroline J","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","last_name":"Muller","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350"}],"keyword":["Global and Planetary Change","General Earth and Planetary Sciences","Environmental Chemistry"],"abstract":[{"text":"We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative‐convective equilibrium states in a cloud‐resolving model. For a given SST, the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20‐30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative‐ and surface‐flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non‐trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius‐Clapeyron and super‐Clausius‐Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges.\r\nThe potential for mesoscale circulations in amplifying the hydrologic cycle is established. However these nonlinear distortions question the quantitative relevance of idealized self‐aggregation. This calls for a deeper investigation of relationships which capture the coupling between global energetics, aggregation feedbacks and local convection, and for systematic tests of their sensitivity to domain configurations, surface boundary conditions, microphysics and turbulence schemes.","lang":"eng"}],"citation":{"short":"B. Fildier, W.D. Collins, C.J. Muller, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 13 (2021).","ista":"Fildier B, Collins WD, Muller CJ. 2021. Distortions of the rain distribution with warming, with and without self‐aggregation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 13(2), e2020MS002256.","mla":"Fildier, Benjamin, et al. “Distortions of the Rain Distribution with Warming, with and without Self‐aggregation.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 13, no. 2, e2020MS002256, American Geophysical Union, 2021, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002256\">10.1029/2020ms002256</a>.","ama":"Fildier B, Collins WD, Muller CJ. Distortions of the rain distribution with warming, with and without self‐aggregation. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. 2021;13(2). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002256\">10.1029/2020ms002256</a>","chicago":"Fildier, Benjamin, William D. Collins, and Caroline J Muller. “Distortions of the Rain Distribution with Warming, with and without Self‐aggregation.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union, 2021. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002256\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002256</a>.","apa":"Fildier, B., Collins, W. D., &#38; Muller, C. J. (2021). Distortions of the rain distribution with warming, with and without self‐aggregation. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002256\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002256</a>","ieee":"B. Fildier, W. D. Collins, and C. J. Muller, “Distortions of the rain distribution with warming, with and without self‐aggregation,” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 13, no. 2. American Geophysical Union, 2021."},"publication_status":"published","ddc":["550"],"article_number":"e2020MS002256","tmp":{"legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode","image":"/images/cc_by_nc.png","name":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)","short":"CC BY-NC (4.0)"},"title":"Distortions of the rain distribution with warming, with and without self‐aggregation","doi":"10.1029/2020ms002256","year":"2021"},{"doi":"10.1029/2020ms002164","year":"2020","title":"Self‐aggregation of convective clouds with interactive sea surface temperature","article_number":"e2020MS002164","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002164","open_access":"1"}],"citation":{"chicago":"Shamekh, S., Caroline J Muller, J.‐P. Duvel, and F. D’Andrea. “Self‐aggregation of Convective Clouds with Interactive Sea Surface Temperature.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union, 2020. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002164\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002164</a>.","ieee":"S. Shamekh, C. J. Muller, J. ‐P. Duvel, and F. D’Andrea, “Self‐aggregation of convective clouds with interactive sea surface temperature,” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 12, no. 11. American Geophysical Union, 2020.","apa":"Shamekh, S., Muller, C. J., Duvel, J. ‐P., &#38; D’Andrea, F. (2020). Self‐aggregation of convective clouds with interactive sea surface temperature. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002164\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002164</a>","ista":"Shamekh S, Muller CJ, Duvel J ‐P., D’Andrea F. 2020. Self‐aggregation of convective clouds with interactive sea surface temperature. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 12(11), e2020MS002164.","short":"S. Shamekh, C.J. Muller, J. ‐P. Duvel, F. D’Andrea, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12 (2020).","mla":"Shamekh, S., et al. “Self‐aggregation of Convective Clouds with Interactive Sea Surface Temperature.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 12, no. 11, e2020MS002164, American Geophysical Union, 2020, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002164\">10.1029/2020ms002164</a>.","ama":"Shamekh S, Muller CJ, Duvel J ‐P., D’Andrea F. Self‐aggregation of convective clouds with interactive sea surface temperature. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. 2020;12(11). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002164\">10.1029/2020ms002164</a>"},"publication_status":"published","author":[{"first_name":"S.","full_name":"Shamekh, S.","last_name":"Shamekh"},{"id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","last_name":"Muller","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","first_name":"Caroline J"},{"first_name":"J.‐P.","full_name":"Duvel, J.‐P.","last_name":"Duvel"},{"full_name":"D'Andrea, F.","last_name":"D'Andrea","first_name":"F."}],"keyword":["Global and Planetary Change","General Earth and Planetary Sciences","Environmental Chemistry"],"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"This study investigates the feedbacks between an interactive sea surface temperature (SST) and the self‐aggregation of deep convective clouds, using a cloud‐resolving model in nonrotating radiative‐convective equilibrium. The ocean is modeled as one layer slab with a temporally fixed mean but spatially varying temperature. We find that the interactive SST decelerates the aggregation and that the deceleration is larger with a shallower slab, consistent with earlier studies. The surface temperature anomaly in dry regions is positive at first, thus opposing the diverging shallow circulation known to favor self‐aggregation, consistent with the slower aggregation. But surprisingly, the driest columns then have a negative SST anomaly, thus strengthening the diverging shallow circulation and favoring aggregation. This diverging circulation out of dry regions is found to be well correlated with the aggregation speed. It can be linked to a positive surface pressure anomaly (PSFC), itself the consequence of SST anomalies and boundary layer radiative cooling. The latter cools and dries the boundary layer, thus increasing PSFC anomalies through virtual effects and hydrostasy. Sensitivity experiments confirm the key role played by boundary layer radiative cooling in determining PSFC anomalies in dry regions, and thus the shallow diverging circulation and the aggregation speed."}],"article_processing_charge":"No","volume":12,"oa":1,"date_updated":"2022-01-24T12:27:38Z","oa_version":"Published Version","quality_controlled":"1","user_id":"8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1942-2466","1942-2466"]},"extern":"1","_id":"9125","article_type":"original","date_published":"2020-11-01T00:00:00Z","month":"11","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"publisher":"American Geophysical Union","date_created":"2021-02-15T14:06:23Z","type":"journal_article","day":"01","status":"public","intvolume":"        12","publication":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","issue":"11"},{"publication":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","issue":"8","intvolume":"        12","status":"public","day":"01","type":"journal_article","date_created":"2021-02-15T14:06:38Z","publisher":"American Geophysical Union","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"month":"08","article_type":"original","date_published":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1942-2466","1942-2466"]},"extern":"1","_id":"9126","oa_version":"Published Version","quality_controlled":"1","user_id":"8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9","article_processing_charge":"No","oa":1,"date_updated":"2022-01-24T12:28:12Z","volume":12,"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"The goal of this study is to understand the mechanisms controlling the isotopic composition of the water vapor near the surface of tropical oceans, at the scale of about a hundred kilometers and a month. In the tropics, it has long been observed that the isotopic compositions of rain and vapor near the surface are more depleted when the precipitation rate is high. This is called the “amount effect.” Previous studies, based on observations or models with parameterized convection, have highlighted the roles of deep convective and mesoscale downdrafts and rain evaporation. But the relative importance of these processes has never been quantified. We hypothesize that it can be quantified using an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations. Results from large‐eddy simulations confirm that the classical amount effect can be simulated only if precipitation rate changes result from changes in the large‐scale circulation. We find that the main process depleting the water vapor compared to the equilibrium with the ocean is the fact that updrafts stem from areas where the water vapor is more enriched. The main process responsible for the amount effect is the fact that when the large‐scale ascent increases, isotopic vertical gradients are steeper, so that updrafts and downdrafts deplete the subcloud layer more efficiently."}],"author":[{"last_name":"Risi","full_name":"Risi, Camille","first_name":"Camille"},{"id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","first_name":"Caroline J","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","last_name":"Muller","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J"},{"first_name":"Peter","last_name":"Blossey","full_name":"Blossey, Peter"}],"keyword":["Global and Planetary Change","General Earth and Planetary Sciences","Environmental Chemistry"],"citation":{"ista":"Risi C, Muller CJ, Blossey P. 2020. What controls the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans? Results from an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 12(8), e2020MS002106.","short":"C. Risi, C.J. Muller, P. Blossey, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12 (2020).","ama":"Risi C, Muller CJ, Blossey P. What controls the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans? Results from an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. 2020;12(8). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002106\">10.1029/2020ms002106</a>","mla":"Risi, Camille, et al. “What Controls the Water Vapor Isotopic Composition near the Surface of Tropical Oceans? Results from an Analytical Model Constrained by Large‐eddy Simulations.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 12, no. 8, e2020MS002106, American Geophysical Union, 2020, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002106\">10.1029/2020ms002106</a>.","chicago":"Risi, Camille, Caroline J Muller, and Peter Blossey. “What Controls the Water Vapor Isotopic Composition near the Surface of Tropical Oceans? Results from an Analytical Model Constrained by Large‐eddy Simulations.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union, 2020. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002106\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002106</a>.","apa":"Risi, C., Muller, C. J., &#38; Blossey, P. (2020). What controls the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans? Results from an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. American Geophysical Union. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002106\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002106</a>","ieee":"C. Risi, C. J. Muller, and P. Blossey, “What controls the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans? Results from an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations,” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 12, no. 8. American Geophysical Union, 2020."},"publication_status":"published","main_file_link":[{"open_access":"1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002106"}],"article_number":"e2020MS002106","title":"What controls the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans? Results from an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations","year":"2020","doi":"10.1029/2020ms002106"},{"date_created":"2021-02-15T14:06:58Z","article_type":"original","date_published":"2020-09-11T00:00:00Z","month":"09","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"publisher":"Springer Nature","issue":"9","publication":"Regional Environmental Change","type":"journal_article","day":"11","status":"public","intvolume":"        20","main_file_link":[{"open_access":"1","url":"https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-02881534"}],"article_number":"78","year":"2020","doi":"10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w","title":"How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?","oa":1,"date_updated":"2022-01-24T12:28:49Z","volume":20,"article_processing_charge":"No","user_id":"8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9","quality_controlled":"1","oa_version":"Submitted Version","_id":"9127","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1436-3798","1436-378X"]},"extern":"1","publication_status":"published","citation":{"ieee":"P. Drobinski <i>et al.</i>, “How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?,” <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>, vol. 20, no. 9. Springer Nature, 2020.","apa":"Drobinski, P., Da Silva, N., Bastin, S., Mailler, S., Muller, C. J., Ahrens, B., … Lionello, P. (2020). How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>. Springer Nature. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>","chicago":"Drobinski, Philippe, Nicolas Da Silva, Sophie Bastin, Sylvain Mailler, Caroline J Muller, Bodo Ahrens, Ole B. Christensen, and Piero Lionello. “How Warmer and Drier Will the Mediterranean Region Be at the End of the Twenty-First Century?” <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>. Springer Nature, 2020. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>.","mla":"Drobinski, Philippe, et al. “How Warmer and Drier Will the Mediterranean Region Be at the End of the Twenty-First Century?” <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>, vol. 20, no. 9, 78, Springer Nature, 2020, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w\">10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>.","ama":"Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, et al. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>. 2020;20(9). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w\">10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>","short":"P. Drobinski, N. Da Silva, S. Bastin, S. Mailler, C.J. Muller, B. Ahrens, O.B. Christensen, P. Lionello, Regional Environmental Change 20 (2020).","ista":"Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, Mailler S, Muller CJ, Ahrens B, Christensen OB, Lionello P. 2020. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? Regional Environmental Change. 20(9), 78."},"keyword":["Global and Planetary Change"],"author":[{"first_name":"Philippe","last_name":"Drobinski","full_name":"Drobinski, Philippe"},{"last_name":"Da Silva","full_name":"Da Silva, Nicolas","first_name":"Nicolas"},{"first_name":"Sophie","full_name":"Bastin, Sophie","last_name":"Bastin"},{"last_name":"Mailler","full_name":"Mailler, Sylvain","first_name":"Sylvain"},{"first_name":"Caroline J","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","last_name":"Muller","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b"},{"first_name":"Bodo","full_name":"Ahrens, Bodo","last_name":"Ahrens"},{"first_name":"Ole B.","last_name":"Christensen","full_name":"Christensen, Ole B."},{"first_name":"Piero","last_name":"Lionello","full_name":"Lionello, Piero"}],"abstract":[{"text":"Nearly all regions in the world are projected to become dryer in a warming climate. Here, we investigate the Mediterranean region, often referred to as a climate change “hot spot”. From regional climate simulations, it is shown that although enhanced warming and drying over land is projected, the spatial pattern displays high variability. Indeed, drying is largely caused by enhanced warming over land. However, in Northern Europe, soil moisture alleviates warming induced drying by up to 50% due to humidity uptake from land. In already arid regions, the Mediterranean Sea is generally the only humidity source, and drying is only due to land warming. However, over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, enhanced warming over land is insufficient to explain the extreme drying. These regions are also isolated from humidity advection by heat lows, which are cyclonic circulation anomalies associated with surface heating over land. The cyclonic circulation scales with the temperature gradient between land and ocean which increases with climate change, reinforcing the cyclonic circulation over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, both diverting the zonal advection of humidity to the south of the Iberian Peninsula. The dynamics are therefore key in the warming and drying of the Mediterranean region, with extreme aridification over the Sahara and Iberian Peninsula. In these regions, the risk for human health due to the thermal load which accounts for air temperature and humidity is therefore projected to increase significantly with climate change at a level of extreme danger.","lang":"eng"}]}]