@article{14851, abstract = {Die Quantenrotation ist ein spannendes Phänomen, das in vielen verschiedenen Systemen auftritt, von Molekülen und Atomen bis hin zu subatomaren Teilchen wie Neutronen und Protonen. Durch den Einsatz von starken Laserpulsen ist es möglich, die mathematisch anspruchsvolle Topologie der Rotation von Molekülen aufzudecken und topologisch geschützte Zustände zu erzeugen, die unerwartetes Verhalten zeigen. Diese Entdeckungen könnten Auswirkungen auf die Molekülphysik und physikalische Chemie haben und die Entwicklung neuer Technologien ermöglichen. Die Verbindung von Quantenrotation und Topologie stellt ein aufregendes, interdisziplinäres Forschungsfeld dar und bietet neue Wege zur Kontrolle und Nutzung von quantenmechanischen Phänomenen.}, author = {Karle, Volker and Lemeshko, Mikhail}, issn = {1521-3943}, journal = {Physik in unserer Zeit}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, General Environmental Science}, number = {1}, pages = {28--33}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {{Die faszinierende Topologie rotierender Quanten}}, doi = {10.1002/piuz.202301690}, volume = {55}, year = {2024}, } @article{14564, abstract = {Cumulus parameterization (CP) in state‐of‐the‐art global climate models is based on the quasi‐equilibrium assumption (QEA), which views convection as the action of an ensemble of cumulus clouds, in a state of equilibrium with respect to a slowly varying atmospheric state. This view is not compatible with the organization and dynamical interactions across multiple scales of cloud systems in the tropics and progress in this research area was slow over decades despite the widely recognized major shortcomings. Novel ideas on how to represent key physical processes of moist convection‐large‐scale interaction to overcome the QEA have surged recently. The stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) CP in particular mimics the dynamical interactions of multiple cloud types that characterize organized tropical convection. Here, the SMCM is used to modify the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) CP by changing the way in which the bulk mass flux and bulk entrainment and detrainment rates are calculated. This is done by introducing a stochastic ensemble of plumes characterized by randomly varying detrainment level distributions based on the cloud area fraction of the SMCM. The SMCM is here extended to include shallow cumulus clouds resulting in a unified shallow‐deep CP. The new stochastic multicloud plume CP is validated against the control ZM scheme in the context of the single column Community Climate Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research using data from both tropical ocean and midlatitude land convection. Some key features of the SMCM CP such as it capability to represent the tri‐modal nature of organized convection are emphasized.}, author = {Khouider, B. and GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B and Phani, R. and Majda, A. J.}, issn = {1942-2466}, journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Global and Planetary Change}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{A shallow‐deep unified stochastic mass flux cumulus parameterization in the single column community climate model}}, doi = {10.1029/2022ms003391}, volume = {15}, year = {2023}, } @article{14752, abstract = {Radiative cooling of the lowest atmospheric levels is of strong importance for modulating atmospheric circulations and organizing convection, but detailed observations and a robust theoretical understanding are lacking. Here we use unprecedented observational constraints from subsidence regimes in the tropical Atlantic to develop a theory for the shape and magnitude of low‐level longwave radiative cooling in clear‐sky, showing peaks larger than 5–10 K/day at the top of the boundary layer. A suite of novel scaling approximations is first developed from simplified spectral theory, in close agreement with the measurements. The radiative cooling peak height is set by the maximum lapse rate in water vapor path, and its magnitude is mainly controlled by the ratio of column relative humidity above and below the peak. We emphasize how elevated intrusions of moist air can reduce low‐level cooling, by sporadically shading the spectral range which effectively cools to space. The efficiency of this spectral shading depends both on water content and altitude of moist intrusions; its height dependence cannot be explained by the temperature difference between the emitting and absorbing layers, but by the decrease of water vapor extinction with altitude. This analytical work can help to narrow the search for low‐level cloud patterns sensitive to radiative‐convective feedbacks: the most organized patterns with largest cloud fractions occur in atmospheres below 10% relative humidity and feel the strongest low‐level cooling. This motivates further assessment of favorable conditions for radiative‐convective feedbacks and a robust quantification of corresponding shallow cloud dynamics in current and warmer climates.}, author = {Fildier, B. and Muller, Caroline J and Pincus, R. and Fueglistaler, S.}, issn = {2576-604X}, journal = {AGU Advances}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{How moisture shapes low‐level radiative cooling in subsidence regimes}}, doi = {10.1029/2023av000880}, volume = {4}, year = {2023}, } @article{14779, abstract = {The presence of a developed boundary layer decouples a glacier's response from ambient conditions, suggesting that sensitivity to climate change is increased by glacier retreat. To test this hypothesis, we explore six years of distributed meteorological data on a small Swiss glacier in the period 2001–2022. Large glacier fragmentation has occurred since 2001 (−35% area change up to 2022) coinciding with notable frontal retreat, an observed switch from down‐glacier katabatic to up‐glacier valley winds and an increased sensitivity (ratio) of on‐glacier to off‐glacier temperature. As the glacier ceases to develop density‐driven katabatic winds, sensible heat fluxes on the glacier are increasingly determined by the conditions occurring outside the boundary layer of the glacier, sealing the glacier's demise as the climate continues to warm and experience an increased frequency of extreme summers.}, author = {Shaw, Thomas E. and Buri, Pascal and McCarthy, Michael and Miles, Evan S. and Ayala, Álvaro and Pellicciotti, Francesca}, issn = {1944-8007}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{The decaying near‐surface boundary layer of a retreating alpine glacier}}, doi = {10.1029/2023gl103043}, volume = {50}, year = {2023}, } @article{12573, abstract = {Supraglacial debris strongly modulates glacier melt rates and can be decisive for ice dynamics and mountain hydrology. It is ubiquitous in High-Mountain Asia, yet because its thickness and supply rate from local topography are poorly known, our ability to forecast regional glacier change and streamflow is limited. Here we combined remote sensing and numerical modelling to resolve supraglacial debris thickness by altitude for 4689 glaciers in High-Mountain Asia, and debris-supply rate to 4141 of those glaciers. Our results reveal extensively thin supraglacial debris and high spatial variability in both debris thickness and supply rate. Debris-supply rate increases with the temperature and slope of debris-supply slopes regionally, and debris thickness increases as ice flow decreases locally. Our centennial-scale estimates of debris-supply rate are typically an order of magnitude or more lower than millennial-scale estimates of headwall-erosion rate from Beryllium-10 cosmogenic nuclides, potentially reflecting episodic debris supply to the region’s glaciers.}, author = {McCarthy, Michael and Miles, Evan and Kneib, Marin and Buri, Pascal and Fugger, Stefan and Pellicciotti, Francesca}, issn = {2662-4435}, journal = {Communications Earth & Environment}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, General Environmental Science}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, title = {{Supraglacial debris thickness and supply rate in High-Mountain Asia}}, doi = {10.1038/s43247-022-00588-2}, volume = {3}, year = {2022}, } @article{9151, abstract = {We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative‐convective equilibrium states in a cloud‐resolving model. For a given SST, the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20‐30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative‐ and surface‐flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non‐trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius‐Clapeyron and super‐Clausius‐Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges. The potential for mesoscale circulations in amplifying the hydrologic cycle is established. However these nonlinear distortions question the quantitative relevance of idealized self‐aggregation. This calls for a deeper investigation of relationships which capture the coupling between global energetics, aggregation feedbacks and local convection, and for systematic tests of their sensitivity to domain configurations, surface boundary conditions, microphysics and turbulence schemes.}, author = {Fildier, Benjamin and Collins, William D. and Muller, Caroline J}, issn = {1942-2466}, journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems}, keywords = {Global and Planetary Change, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Chemistry}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{Distortions of the rain distribution with warming, with and without self‐aggregation}}, doi = {10.1029/2020ms002256}, volume = {13}, year = {2021}, } @article{12584, abstract = {This project explored the integrated use of satellite, ground observations and hydrological distributed models to support water resources assessment and monitoring in High Mountain Asia (HMA). Hydrological data products were generated taking advantage of the synergies of European and Chinese data assets and space-borne observation systems. Energy-budget-based glacier mass balance and hydrological models driven by satellite observations were developed. These models can be applied to describe glacier-melt contribution to river flow. Satellite hydrological data products were used for forcing, calibration, validation and data assimilation in distributed river basin models. A pilot study was carried out on the Red River basin. Multiple hydrological data products were generated using the data collected by Chinese satellites. A new Evapo-Transpiration (ET) dataset from 2000 to 2018 was generated, including plant transpiration, soil evaporation, rainfall interception loss, snow/ice sublimation and open water evaporation. Higher resolution data were used to characterize glaciers and their response to environmental forcing. These studies focused on the Parlung Zangbo Basin, where glacier facies were mapped with GaoFeng (GF), Sentinal-2/Multi-Spectral Imager (S2/MSI) and Landsat8/Operational Land Imager (L8/OLI) data. The geodetic mass balance was estimated between 2000 and 2017 with Zi-Yuan (ZY)-3 Stereo Images and the SRTM DEM. Surface velocity was studied with Landsat5/Thematic Mapper (L5/TM), L8/OLI and S2/MSI data over the period 2013–2019. An updated method was developed to improve the retrieval of glacier albedo by correcting glacier reflectance for anisotropy, and a new dataset on glacier albedo was generated for the period 2001–2020. A detailed glacier energy and mass balance model was developed with the support of field experiments at the Parlung No. 4 Glacier and the 24 K Glacier, both in the Tibetan Plateau. Besides meteorological measurements, the field experiments included glaciological and hydrological measurements. The energy balance model was formulated in terms of enthalpy for easier treatment of water phase transitions. The model was applied to assess the spatial variability in glacier melt. In the Parlung No. 4 Glacier, the accumulated glacier melt was between 1.5 and 2.5 m w.e. in the accumulation zone and between 4.5 and 6.0 m w.e. in the ablation zone, reaching 6.5 m w.e. at the terminus. The seasonality in the glacier mass balance was observed by combining intensive field campaigns with continuous automatic observations. The linkage of the glacier and snowpack mass balance with water resources in a river basin was analyzed in the Chiese (Italy) and Heihe (China) basins by developing and applying integrated hydrological models using satellite retrievals in multiple ways. The model FEST-WEB was calibrated using retrievals of Land Surface Temperature (LST) to map soil hydrological properties. A watershed model was developed by coupling ecohydrological and socioeconomic systems. Integrated modeling is supported by an updated and parallelized data assimilation system. The latter exploits retrievals of brightness temperature (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer, AMSR), LST (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS), precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and FengYun (FY)-2D) and in-situ measurements. In the case study on the Red River Basin, a new algorithm has been applied to disaggregate the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) soil moisture retrievals by making use of the correlation between evaporative fraction and soil moisture.}, author = {Menenti, Massimo and Li, Xin and Jia, Li and Yang, Kun and Pellicciotti, Francesca and Mancini, Marco and Shi, Jiancheng and Escorihuela, Maria José and Zheng, Chaolei and Chen, Qiting and Lu, Jing and Zhou, Jie and Hu, Guangcheng and Ren, Shaoting and Zhang, Jing and Liu, Qinhuo and Qiu, Yubao and Huang, Chunlin and Zhou, Ji and Han, Xujun and Pan, Xiaoduo and Li, Hongyi and Wu, Yerong and Ding, Baohong and Yang, Wei and Buri, Pascal and McCarthy, Michael J. and Miles, Evan S. and Shaw, Thomas E. and Ma, Chunfeng and Zhou, Yanzhao and Corbari, Chiara and Li, Rui and Zhao, Tianjie and Stefan, Vivien and Gao, Qi and Zhang, Jingxiao and Xie, Qiuxia and Wang, Ning and Sun, Yibo and Mo, Xinyu and Jia, Junru and Jouberton, Achille Pierre and Kneib, Marin and Fugger, Stefan and Paciolla, Nicola and Paolini, Giovanni}, issn = {2072-4292}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences}, number = {24}, publisher = {MDPI}, title = {{Multi-source hydrological data products to monitor High Asian river basins and regional water security}}, doi = {10.3390/rs13245122}, volume = {13}, year = {2021}, } @article{12588, abstract = {The thinning patterns of debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia are not well understood. Here we calculate the effect of supraglacial ice cliffs on the mass balance of all glaciers in a Himalayan catchment, using a process-based ice cliff melt model. We show that ice cliffs are responsible for higher than expected thinning rates of debris-covered glacier tongues, leading to an underestimation of their ice mass loss of 17% ± 4% in the catchment if not considered. We also show that cliffs do enhance melt where other processes would suppress it, that is, at high elevations, or where debris is thick, and that they contribute relatively more to glacier mass loss if oriented north. Our approach provides a key contribution to our understanding of the mass losses of debris-covered glaciers, and a new quantification of their catchment wide melt and mass balance.}, author = {Buri, Pascal and Miles, Evan S. and Steiner, Jakob F. and Ragettli, Silvan and Pellicciotti, Francesca}, issn = {1944-8007}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{Supraglacial ice cliffs can substantially increase the mass loss of debris‐covered glaciers}}, doi = {10.1029/2020gl092150}, volume = {48}, year = {2021}, } @article{9125, abstract = {This study investigates the feedbacks between an interactive sea surface temperature (SST) and the self‐aggregation of deep convective clouds, using a cloud‐resolving model in nonrotating radiative‐convective equilibrium. The ocean is modeled as one layer slab with a temporally fixed mean but spatially varying temperature. We find that the interactive SST decelerates the aggregation and that the deceleration is larger with a shallower slab, consistent with earlier studies. The surface temperature anomaly in dry regions is positive at first, thus opposing the diverging shallow circulation known to favor self‐aggregation, consistent with the slower aggregation. But surprisingly, the driest columns then have a negative SST anomaly, thus strengthening the diverging shallow circulation and favoring aggregation. This diverging circulation out of dry regions is found to be well correlated with the aggregation speed. It can be linked to a positive surface pressure anomaly (PSFC), itself the consequence of SST anomalies and boundary layer radiative cooling. The latter cools and dries the boundary layer, thus increasing PSFC anomalies through virtual effects and hydrostasy. Sensitivity experiments confirm the key role played by boundary layer radiative cooling in determining PSFC anomalies in dry regions, and thus the shallow diverging circulation and the aggregation speed.}, author = {Shamekh, S. and Muller, Caroline J and Duvel, J.‐P. and D'Andrea, F.}, issn = {1942-2466}, journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems}, keywords = {Global and Planetary Change, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Chemistry}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{Self‐aggregation of convective clouds with interactive sea surface temperature}}, doi = {10.1029/2020ms002164}, volume = {12}, year = {2020}, } @article{9126, abstract = {The goal of this study is to understand the mechanisms controlling the isotopic composition of the water vapor near the surface of tropical oceans, at the scale of about a hundred kilometers and a month. In the tropics, it has long been observed that the isotopic compositions of rain and vapor near the surface are more depleted when the precipitation rate is high. This is called the “amount effect.” Previous studies, based on observations or models with parameterized convection, have highlighted the roles of deep convective and mesoscale downdrafts and rain evaporation. But the relative importance of these processes has never been quantified. We hypothesize that it can be quantified using an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations. Results from large‐eddy simulations confirm that the classical amount effect can be simulated only if precipitation rate changes result from changes in the large‐scale circulation. We find that the main process depleting the water vapor compared to the equilibrium with the ocean is the fact that updrafts stem from areas where the water vapor is more enriched. The main process responsible for the amount effect is the fact that when the large‐scale ascent increases, isotopic vertical gradients are steeper, so that updrafts and downdrafts deplete the subcloud layer more efficiently.}, author = {Risi, Camille and Muller, Caroline J and Blossey, Peter}, issn = {1942-2466}, journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems}, keywords = {Global and Planetary Change, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Chemistry}, number = {8}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{What controls the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans? Results from an analytical model constrained by large‐eddy simulations}}, doi = {10.1029/2020ms002106}, volume = {12}, year = {2020}, } @article{12593, abstract = {Rock debris can accumulate on glacier surfaces and dramatically reduce glacier melt. The structure of a debris cover is unique to each glacier and sensitive to climate. Despite this, debris cover has been omitted from global glacier models and forecasts of their response to a changing climate. Fundamental to resolving these omissions is a global map of debris cover and an estimate of its future spatial evolution. Here we use Landsat imagery and a detailed correction to the Randolph Glacier Inventory to show that 7.3% of mountain glacier area is debris covered and over half of Earth’s debris is concentrated in three regions: Alaska (38.6% of total debris-covered area), Southwest Asia (12.6%) and Greenland (12.0%). We use a set of new metrics, which include stage, the current position of a glacier on its trajectory towards reaching its spatial carrying capacity of debris cover, to quantify the state of glaciers. Debris cover is present on 44% of Earth’s glaciers and prominent (>1.0 km2) on 15%. Of Earth’s glaciers, 20% have a substantial percentage of debris cover for which the net stage is 36% and the bulk of individual glaciers have evolved beyond an optimal moraine configuration favourable for debris-cover expansion. Use of this dataset in global-scale models will enable improved estimates of melt over 10.6% of the global glacier domain.}, author = {Herreid, Sam and Pellicciotti, Francesca}, issn = {1752-0908}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences}, number = {9}, pages = {621--627}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, title = {{The state of rock debris covering Earth’s glaciers}}, doi = {10.1038/s41561-020-0615-0}, volume = {13}, year = {2020}, } @article{12604, abstract = {Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia provide an important water resource for millions of people. Many of these glaciers are partially covered by rocky debris, which protects the ice from solar radiation and warm air. However, studies have found that the surface of these debris-covered glaciers is actually lowering as fast as glaciers without debris. Water ponded on the surface of the glaciers may be partially responsible, as water can absorb atmospheric energy very efficiently. However, the overall effect of these ponds has not been thoroughly assessed yet. We study a valley in Nepal for which we have extensive weather measurements, and we use a numerical model to calculate the energy absorbed by ponds on the surface of the glaciers over 6 months. As we have not observed each individual pond thoroughly, we run the model 5,000 times with different setups. We find that ponds are extremely important for glacier melt and absorb energy 14 times as quickly as the debris-covered ice. Although the ponds account for 1% of the glacier area covered by rocks, and only 0.3% of the total glacier area, they absorb enough energy to account for one eighth of the whole valley's ice loss.}, author = {Miles, Evan S. and Willis, Ian and Buri, Pascal and Steiner, Jakob F. and Arnold, Neil S. and Pellicciotti, Francesca}, issn = {1944-8007}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics}, number = {19}, pages = {10464--10473}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{Surface pond energy absorption across four Himalayan Glaciers accounts for 1/8 of total catchment ice loss}}, doi = {10.1029/2018gl079678}, volume = {45}, year = {2018}, } @article{12610, abstract = {The hydrological systems of heavily-downwasted debris-covered glaciers differ from those of clean-ice glaciers due to the hummocky surface and debris mantle of such glaciers, leading to a relatively limited understanding of drainage pathways. Supraglacial ponds represent sinks within the discontinuous supraglacial drainage system, and occasionally drain englacially. To assess pond dynamics, we made pond water level measurements on Lirung Glacier, Nepal, during May and October of 2013 and 2014. Simultaneously, aerial, satellite, and terrestrial orthoimages and digital elevation models were obtained, providing snapshots of the ponds and their surroundings. We performed a DEM-based analysis of the glacier's closed surface catchments to identify surface drainage pathways and englacial drainage points, and compared this to field observations of surface and near-surface water flow. The total ponded area was higher in the pre-monsoon than post-monsoon, with individual ponds filling and draining seasonally associated with the surface exposure of englacial conduit segments. We recorded four pond drainage events, all of which occurred gradually (duration of weeks), observed diurnal fluctuations indicative of varying water supply and outflow discharge, and we documented instances of interaction between distant ponds. The DEM drainage analysis identified numerous sinks >3 m in depth across the glacier surface, few of which exhibited ponds (23%), while the field survey highlighted instances of surface water only explicable via englacial routes. Taken together, our observations provide evidence for widespread supraglacial-englacial connectivity of meltwater drainage paths. Results suggest that successive englacial conduit collapse events, themselves likely driven by supraglacial pond drainage, cause the glacier surface drainage system to evolve into a configuration following relict englacial conduit systems. Within this system, ponds form in depressions of reduced drainage efficiency and link the supraglacial and englacial drainage networks.}, author = {Miles, Evan S. and Steiner, Jakob and Willis, Ian and Buri, Pascal and Immerzeel, Walter W. and Chesnokova, Anna and Pellicciotti, Francesca}, issn = {2296-6463}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, title = {{Pond dynamics and supraglacial-englacial connectivity on debris-covered Lirung Glacier, Nepal}}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2017.00069}, volume = {5}, year = {2017}, } @article{12638, abstract = {Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.}, author = {Lutz, A. F. and Immerzeel, W. W. and Gobiet, A. and Pellicciotti, Francesca and Bierkens, M. F. P.}, issn = {1607-7938}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, General Engineering, General Environmental Science}, number = {9}, pages = {3661--3677}, publisher = {Copernicus GmbH}, title = {{Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers}}, doi = {10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013}, volume = {17}, year = {2013}, } @article{12640, abstract = {Greater Himalayan glaciers are retreating and losing mass at rates comparable to glaciers in other regions of the world1,2,3,4,5. Assessments of future changes and their associated hydrological impacts are scarce, oversimplify glacier dynamics or include a limited number of climate models6,7,8,9. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a high-resolution glacio-hydrological model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change on two climatically contrasting watersheds in the Greater Himalaya, the Baltoro and Langtang watersheds that drain into the Indus and Ganges rivers, respectively. We show that the largest uncertainty in future runoff is a result of variations in projected precipitation between climate models. In both watersheds, strong, but highly variable, increases in future runoff are projected and, despite the different characteristics of the watersheds, their responses are surprisingly similar. In both cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff is on a rising limb at least until 2050. In combination with a positive change in precipitation, water availability during this century is not likely to decline. We conclude that river basins that depend on monsoon rains and glacier melt will continue to sustain the increasing water demands expected in these areas10.}, author = {Immerzeel, W. W. and Pellicciotti, Francesca and Bierkens, M. F. P.}, issn = {1752-0908}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences}, number = {9}, pages = {742--745}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, title = {{Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds}}, doi = {10.1038/ngeo1896}, volume = {6}, year = {2013}, } @article{9148, abstract = {Several observational studies have shown a tight relationship between tropical precipitation and column‐integrated water vapor. We show that the observed relationship in the tropics between column‐integrated water vapor, precipitation, and its variance can be qualitatively reproduced by a simple and physically motivated two‐layer model. It has previously been argued that features of this relationship could be explained by analogy with the theory of continuous phase transitions. Instead, our model explicitly assumes that the onset of precipitation is governed by a stability threshold involving boundary‐layer water vapor. This allows us to explain the precipitation‐humidity relationship over a broader range of water vapor values, and may explain the observed temperature dependence of the relationship.}, author = {Muller, Caroline J and Back, Larissa E. and O'Gorman, Paul A. and Emanuel, Kerry A.}, issn = {0094-8276}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics}, number = {16}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, title = {{A model for the relationship between tropical precipitation and column water vapor}}, doi = {10.1029/2009gl039667}, volume = {36}, year = {2009}, }