---
_id: '12134'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Standard epidemic models exhibit one continuous, second order phase transition
    to macroscopic outbreaks. However, interventions to control outbreaks may fundamentally
    alter epidemic dynamics. Here we reveal how such interventions modify the type
    of phase transition. In particular, we uncover three distinct types of explosive
    phase transitions for epidemic dynamics with capacity-limited interventions. Depending
    on the capacity limit, interventions may (i) leave the standard second order phase
    transition unchanged but exponentially suppress the probability of large outbreaks,
    (ii) induce a first-order discontinuous transition to macroscopic outbreaks, or
    (iii) cause a secondary explosive yet continuous third-order transition. These
    insights highlight inherent limitations in predicting and containing epidemic
    outbreaks. More generally our study offers a cornerstone example of a third-order
    explosive phase transition in complex systems.
acknowledgement: We acknowledge support from the Volkswagen Foundation under Grant
  No. 99720 and the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) under
  Grant No. 16ICR01. This research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
  (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy—EXC-2068—390729961—Cluster
  of Excellence Physics of Life of TU Dresden.
article_number: 04LT02
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Georg
  full_name: Börner, Georg
  last_name: Börner
- first_name: Malte
  full_name: Schröder, Malte
  last_name: Schröder
- first_name: Davide
  full_name: Scarselli, Davide
  id: 40315C30-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
  last_name: Scarselli
  orcid: 0000-0001-5227-4271
- first_name: Nazmi B
  full_name: Budanur, Nazmi B
  id: 3EA1010E-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
  last_name: Budanur
  orcid: 0000-0003-0423-5010
- first_name: Björn
  full_name: Hof, Björn
  id: 3A374330-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
  last_name: Hof
  orcid: 0000-0003-2057-2754
- first_name: Marc
  full_name: Timme, Marc
  last_name: Timme
citation:
  ama: 'Börner G, Schröder M, Scarselli D, Budanur NB, Hof B, Timme M. Explosive transitions
    in epidemic dynamics. <i>Journal of Physics: Complexity</i>. 2022;3(4). doi:<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd">10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd</a>'
  apa: 'Börner, G., Schröder, M., Scarselli, D., Budanur, N. B., Hof, B., &#38; Timme,
    M. (2022). Explosive transitions in epidemic dynamics. <i>Journal of Physics:
    Complexity</i>. IOP Publishing. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd">https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd</a>'
  chicago: 'Börner, Georg, Malte Schröder, Davide Scarselli, Nazmi B Budanur, Björn
    Hof, and Marc Timme. “Explosive Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics.” <i>Journal
    of Physics: Complexity</i>. IOP Publishing, 2022. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd">https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd</a>.'
  ieee: 'G. Börner, M. Schröder, D. Scarselli, N. B. Budanur, B. Hof, and M. Timme,
    “Explosive transitions in epidemic dynamics,” <i>Journal of Physics: Complexity</i>,
    vol. 3, no. 4. IOP Publishing, 2022.'
  ista: 'Börner G, Schröder M, Scarselli D, Budanur NB, Hof B, Timme M. 2022. Explosive
    transitions in epidemic dynamics. Journal of Physics: Complexity. 3(4), 04LT02.'
  mla: 'Börner, Georg, et al. “Explosive Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics.” <i>Journal
    of Physics: Complexity</i>, vol. 3, no. 4, 04LT02, IOP Publishing, 2022, doi:<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd">10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd</a>.'
  short: 'G. Börner, M. Schröder, D. Scarselli, N.B. Budanur, B. Hof, M. Timme, Journal
    of Physics: Complexity 3 (2022).'
date_created: 2023-01-12T12:03:43Z
date_published: 2022-10-25T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2023-02-13T09:15:13Z
day: '25'
ddc:
- '530'
department:
- _id: BjHo
doi: 10.1088/2632-072x/ac99cd
file:
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  creator: dernst
  date_created: 2023-01-24T07:24:37Z
  date_updated: 2023-01-24T07:24:37Z
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file_date_updated: 2023-01-24T07:24:37Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: '         3'
issue: '4'
keyword:
- Artificial Intelligence
- Computer Networks and Communications
- Computer Science Applications
- Information Systems
language:
- iso: eng
month: '10'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: 'Journal of Physics: Complexity'
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 2632-072X
publication_status: published
publisher: IOP Publishing
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Explosive transitions in epidemic dynamics
tmp:
  image: /images/cc_by.png
  legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
  name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
  short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 3
year: '2022'
...