---
_id: '12638'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the
    Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in
    this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future
    glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty
    in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr
    Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated
    for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in
    the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized
    glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent
    as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature
    and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for
    implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution
    does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue.
    Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3
    ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation
    is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future
    glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because
    differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September)
    while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum
    accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter
    uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the
    climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent
    remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and
    downstream water availability uncertain.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: A. F.
  full_name: Lutz, A. F.
  last_name: Lutz
- first_name: W. W.
  full_name: Immerzeel, W. W.
  last_name: Immerzeel
- first_name: A.
  full_name: Gobiet, A.
  last_name: Gobiet
- first_name: Francesca
  full_name: Pellicciotti, Francesca
  id: b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70
  last_name: Pellicciotti
- first_name: M. F. P.
  full_name: Bierkens, M. F. P.
  last_name: Bierkens
citation:
  ama: Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Gobiet A, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MFP. Comparison of
    climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications
    for Central Asian glaciers. <i>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</i>. 2013;17(9):3661-3677.
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013">10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013</a>
  apa: Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Gobiet, A., Pellicciotti, F., &#38; Bierkens,
    M. F. P. (2013). Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model
    ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers. <i>Hydrology and Earth
    System Sciences</i>. Copernicus GmbH. <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013">https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013</a>
  chicago: Lutz, A. F., W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, Francesca Pellicciotti, and M.
    F. P. Bierkens. “Comparison of Climate Change Signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 Multi-Model
    Ensembles and Implications for Central Asian Glaciers.” <i>Hydrology and Earth
    System Sciences</i>. Copernicus GmbH, 2013. <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013">https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013</a>.
  ieee: A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens,
    “Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles
    and implications for Central Asian glaciers,” <i>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</i>,
    vol. 17, no. 9. Copernicus GmbH, pp. 3661–3677, 2013.
  ista: Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Gobiet A, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MFP. 2013. Comparison
    of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications
    for Central Asian glaciers. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 17(9), 3661–3677.
  mla: Lutz, A. F., et al. “Comparison of Climate Change Signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5
    Multi-Model Ensembles and Implications for Central Asian Glaciers.” <i>Hydrology
    and Earth System Sciences</i>, vol. 17, no. 9, Copernicus GmbH, 2013, pp. 3661–77,
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013">10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013</a>.
  short: A.F. Lutz, W.W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, M.F.P. Bierkens, Hydrology
    and Earth System Sciences 17 (2013) 3661–3677.
date_created: 2023-02-20T08:17:05Z
date_published: 2013-09-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2023-02-24T08:19:48Z
day: '01'
doi: 10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013
extern: '1'
intvolume: '        17'
issue: '9'
keyword:
- General Earth and Planetary Sciences
- General Engineering
- General Environmental Science
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013
month: '09'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
page: 3661-3677
publication: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 1607-7938
publication_status: published
publisher: Copernicus GmbH
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles
  and implications for Central Asian glaciers
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 17
year: '2013'
...