---
_id: '9127'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Nearly all regions in the world are projected to become dryer in a warming
    climate. Here, we investigate the Mediterranean region, often referred to as a
    climate change “hot spot”. From regional climate simulations, it is shown that
    although enhanced warming and drying over land is projected, the spatial pattern
    displays high variability. Indeed, drying is largely caused by enhanced warming
    over land. However, in Northern Europe, soil moisture alleviates warming induced
    drying by up to 50% due to humidity uptake from land. In already arid regions,
    the Mediterranean Sea is generally the only humidity source, and drying is only
    due to land warming. However, over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, enhanced
    warming over land is insufficient to explain the extreme drying. These regions
    are also isolated from humidity advection by heat lows, which are cyclonic circulation
    anomalies associated with surface heating over land. The cyclonic circulation
    scales with the temperature gradient between land and ocean which increases with
    climate change, reinforcing the cyclonic circulation over Sahara and the Iberian
    Peninsula, both diverting the zonal advection of humidity to the south of the
    Iberian Peninsula. The dynamics are therefore key in the warming and drying of
    the Mediterranean region, with extreme aridification over the Sahara and Iberian
    Peninsula. In these regions, the risk for human health due to the thermal load
    which accounts for air temperature and humidity is therefore projected to increase
    significantly with climate change at a level of extreme danger.
article_number: '78'
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Philippe
  full_name: Drobinski, Philippe
  last_name: Drobinski
- first_name: Nicolas
  full_name: Da Silva, Nicolas
  last_name: Da Silva
- first_name: Sophie
  full_name: Bastin, Sophie
  last_name: Bastin
- first_name: Sylvain
  full_name: Mailler, Sylvain
  last_name: Mailler
- first_name: Caroline J
  full_name: Muller, Caroline J
  id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
  last_name: Muller
  orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Bodo
  full_name: Ahrens, Bodo
  last_name: Ahrens
- first_name: Ole B.
  full_name: Christensen, Ole B.
  last_name: Christensen
- first_name: Piero
  full_name: Lionello, Piero
  last_name: Lionello
citation:
  ama: Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, et al. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean
    region be at the end of the twenty-first century? <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>.
    2020;20(9). doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w">10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>
  apa: Drobinski, P., Da Silva, N., Bastin, S., Mailler, S., Muller, C. J., Ahrens,
    B., … Lionello, P. (2020). How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region
    be at the end of the twenty-first century? <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>.
    Springer Nature. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>
  chicago: Drobinski, Philippe, Nicolas Da Silva, Sophie Bastin, Sylvain Mailler,
    Caroline J Muller, Bodo Ahrens, Ole B. Christensen, and Piero Lionello. “How Warmer
    and Drier Will the Mediterranean Region Be at the End of the Twenty-First Century?”
    <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>. Springer Nature, 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>.
  ieee: P. Drobinski <i>et al.</i>, “How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region
    be at the end of the twenty-first century?,” <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>,
    vol. 20, no. 9. Springer Nature, 2020.
  ista: Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, Mailler S, Muller CJ, Ahrens B, Christensen
    OB, Lionello P. 2020. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at
    the end of the twenty-first century? Regional Environmental Change. 20(9), 78.
  mla: Drobinski, Philippe, et al. “How Warmer and Drier Will the Mediterranean Region
    Be at the End of the Twenty-First Century?” <i>Regional Environmental Change</i>,
    vol. 20, no. 9, 78, Springer Nature, 2020, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w">10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w</a>.
  short: P. Drobinski, N. Da Silva, S. Bastin, S. Mailler, C.J. Muller, B. Ahrens,
    O.B. Christensen, P. Lionello, Regional Environmental Change 20 (2020).
date_created: 2021-02-15T14:06:58Z
date_published: 2020-09-11T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2022-01-24T12:28:49Z
day: '11'
doi: 10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w
extern: '1'
intvolume: '        20'
issue: '9'
keyword:
- Global and Planetary Change
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-02881534
month: '09'
oa: 1
oa_version: Submitted Version
publication: Regional Environmental Change
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 1436-3798
  - 1436-378X
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first
  century?
type: journal_article
user_id: 8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9
volume: 20
year: '2020'
...