---
_id: '9154'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: "In this study the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming
    in organized convection is examined using a cloud-resolving model. Vertical shear
    is imposed to organize the convection into squall lines. Earlier studies show
    that in disorganized convection, the fractional increase of precipitation extremes
    is similar to that of surface water vapor, which is substantially smaller than
    the increase in column water vapor. It has been suggested that organized convection
    could lead to stronger amplifications.\r\nRegardless of the strength of the shear,
    amplifications of precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are
    comparable to those of surface water vapor and are substantially less than increases
    in column water vapor. The results without shear and with critical shear, for
    which the squall lines are perpendicular to the shear, are surprisingly similar
    with a fractional rate of increase of precipitation extremes slightly smaller
    than that of surface water vapor. Interestingly, the dependence on shear is nonmonotonic,
    and stronger supercritical shear yields larger rates, close to or slightly larger
    than surface humidity.\r\nA scaling is used to evaluate the thermodynamic and
    dynamic contributions to precipitation extreme changes. To first order, they are
    dominated by the thermodynamic component, which has the same magnitude for all
    shears, close to the change in surface water vapor. The dynamic contribution plays
    a secondary role and tends to weaken extremes without shear and with critical
    shear, while it strengthens extremes with supercritical shear. These different
    dynamic contributions for different shears are due to different responses of convective
    mass fluxes in individual updrafts to warming."
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Caroline J
  full_name: Muller, Caroline J
  id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
  last_name: Muller
  orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
citation:
  ama: Muller CJ. Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation
    extremes to warming. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. 2013;26(14):5028-5043. doi:<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1">10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>
  apa: Muller, C. J. (2013). Impact of convective organization on the response of
    tropical precipitation extremes to warming. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. American
    Meteorological Society. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>
  chicago: Muller, Caroline J. “Impact of Convective Organization on the Response
    of Tropical Precipitation Extremes to Warming.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>. American
    Meteorological Society, 2013. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>.
  ieee: C. J. Muller, “Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical
    precipitation extremes to warming,” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 26, no. 14.
    American Meteorological Society, pp. 5028–5043, 2013.
  ista: Muller CJ. 2013. Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical
    precipitation extremes to warming. Journal of Climate. 26(14), 5028–5043.
  mla: Muller, Caroline J. “Impact of Convective Organization on the Response of Tropical
    Precipitation Extremes to Warming.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 26, no. 14,
    American Meteorological Society, 2013, pp. 5028–43, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1">10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>.
  short: C.J. Muller, Journal of Climate 26 (2013) 5028–5043.
date_created: 2021-02-15T15:26:39Z
date_published: 2013-07-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2022-01-24T13:46:41Z
day: '15'
doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1
extern: '1'
intvolume: '        26'
issue: '14'
keyword:
- Atmospheric Science
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00655.1
month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
page: 5028-5043
publication: Journal of Climate
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 0894-8755
  - 1520-0442
publication_status: published
publisher: American Meteorological Society
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation
  extremes to warming
type: journal_article
user_id: 8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9
volume: 26
year: '2013'
...
---
_id: '9144'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: "A cloud-resolving model is used to investigate the effect of warming on high
    percentiles of precipitation (precipitation extremes) in the idealized setting
    of radiative-convective equilibrium. While this idealized setting does not allow
    for several factors that influence precipitation in the tropics, it does allow
    for an evaluation of the response of precipitation extremes to warming in simulations
    with resolved rather than parameterized convection. The methodology developed
    should also be applicable to less idealized simulations.\r\n\r\nModeled precipitation
    extremes are found to increase in magnitude in response to an increase in sea
    surface temperature. A dry static energy budget is used to relate the changes
    in precipitation extremes to changes in atmospheric temperature, vertical velocity,
    and precipitation efficiency. To first order, the changes in precipitation extremes
    are captured by changes in the mean temperature structure of the atmosphere. Changes
    in vertical velocities play a secondary role and tend to weaken the strength of
    precipitation extremes, despite an intensification of updraft velocities in the
    upper troposphere. The influence of changes in condensate transports on precipitation
    extremes is quantified in terms of a precipitation efficiency; it does not change
    greatly with warming.\r\n\r\nTropical precipitation extremes have previously been
    found to increase at a greater fractional rate than the amount of atmospheric
    water vapor in observations of present-day variability and in some climate model
    simulations with parameterized convection. But the fractional increases in precipitation
    extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable in magnitude to those
    in surface water vapor concentrations (owing to a partial cancellation between
    dynamical and thermodynamical changes), and are substantially less than the fractional
    increases in column water vapor."
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Caroline J
  full_name: Muller, Caroline J
  id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
  last_name: Muller
  orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Paul A.
  full_name: O’Gorman, Paul A.
  last_name: O’Gorman
- first_name: Larissa E.
  full_name: Back, Larissa E.
  last_name: Back
citation:
  ama: Muller CJ, O’Gorman PA, Back LE. Intensification of precipitation extremes
    with warming in a cloud-resolving model. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. 2011;24(11):2784-2800.
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1">10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>
  apa: Muller, C. J., O’Gorman, P. A., &#38; Back, L. E. (2011). Intensification of
    precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model. <i>Journal of
    Climate</i>. American Meteorological Society. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>
  chicago: Muller, Caroline J, Paul A. O’Gorman, and Larissa E. Back. “Intensification
    of Precipitation Extremes with Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model.” <i>Journal
    of Climate</i>. American Meteorological Society, 2011. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>.
  ieee: C. J. Muller, P. A. O’Gorman, and L. E. Back, “Intensification of precipitation
    extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model,” <i>Journal of Climate</i>,
    vol. 24, no. 11. American Meteorological Society, pp. 2784–2800, 2011.
  ista: Muller CJ, O’Gorman PA, Back LE. 2011. Intensification of precipitation extremes
    with warming in a cloud-resolving model. Journal of Climate. 24(11), 2784–2800.
  mla: Muller, Caroline J., et al. “Intensification of Precipitation Extremes with
    Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 24, no. 11,
    American Meteorological Society, 2011, pp. 2784–800, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1">10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>.
  short: C.J. Muller, P.A. O’Gorman, L.E. Back, Journal of Climate 24 (2011) 2784–2800.
date_created: 2021-02-15T14:39:57Z
date_published: 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2022-01-24T13:52:46Z
day: '01'
doi: 10.1175/2011jcli3876.1
extern: '1'
intvolume: '        24'
issue: '11'
keyword:
- Atmospheric Science
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3876.1
month: '06'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
page: 2784-2800
publication: Journal of Climate
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1520-0442
  issn:
  - 0894-8755
publication_status: published
publisher: American Meteorological Society
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving
  model
type: journal_article
user_id: 8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9
volume: 24
year: '2011'
...