[{"date_created":"2021-02-15T15:26:39Z","article_type":"original","volume":26,"oa_version":"Published Version","title":"Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming","day":"15","author":[{"last_name":"Muller","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","first_name":"Caroline J"}],"publication_status":"published","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0894-8755","1520-0442"]},"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"In this study the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming in organized convection is examined using a cloud-resolving model. Vertical shear is imposed to organize the convection into squall lines. Earlier studies show that in disorganized convection, the fractional increase of precipitation extremes is similar to that of surface water vapor, which is substantially smaller than the increase in column water vapor. It has been suggested that organized convection could lead to stronger amplifications.\r\nRegardless of the strength of the shear, amplifications of precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable to those of surface water vapor and are substantially less than increases in column water vapor. The results without shear and with critical shear, for which the squall lines are perpendicular to the shear, are surprisingly similar with a fractional rate of increase of precipitation extremes slightly smaller than that of surface water vapor. Interestingly, the dependence on shear is nonmonotonic, and stronger supercritical shear yields larger rates, close to or slightly larger than surface humidity.\r\nA scaling is used to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to precipitation extreme changes. To first order, they are dominated by the thermodynamic component, which has the same magnitude for all shears, close to the change in surface water vapor. The dynamic contribution plays a secondary role and tends to weaken extremes without shear and with critical shear, while it strengthens extremes with supercritical shear. These different dynamic contributions for different shears are due to different responses of convective mass fluxes in individual updrafts to warming."}],"intvolume":"        26","month":"07","user_id":"8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9","citation":{"ama":"Muller CJ. Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. 2013;26(14):5028-5043. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1\">10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>","ieee":"C. J. Muller, “Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming,” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 26, no. 14. American Meteorological Society, pp. 5028–5043, 2013.","short":"C.J. Muller, Journal of Climate 26 (2013) 5028–5043.","chicago":"Muller, Caroline J. “Impact of Convective Organization on the Response of Tropical Precipitation Extremes to Warming.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>. American Meteorological Society, 2013. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1\">https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>.","ista":"Muller CJ. 2013. Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming. Journal of Climate. 26(14), 5028–5043.","apa":"Muller, C. J. (2013). Impact of convective organization on the response of tropical precipitation extremes to warming. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. American Meteorological Society. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1\">https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>","mla":"Muller, Caroline J. “Impact of Convective Organization on the Response of Tropical Precipitation Extremes to Warming.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 26, no. 14, American Meteorological Society, 2013, pp. 5028–43, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1\">10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1</a>."},"issue":"14","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"oa":1,"type":"journal_article","_id":"9154","date_updated":"2022-01-24T13:46:41Z","publisher":"American Meteorological Society","article_processing_charge":"No","doi":"10.1175/jcli-d-12-00655.1","quality_controlled":"1","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00655.1","open_access":"1"}],"page":"5028-5043","keyword":["Atmospheric Science"],"year":"2013","date_published":"2013-07-15T00:00:00Z","extern":"1","status":"public","publication":"Journal of Climate"},{"publication":"Journal of Climate","status":"public","extern":"1","date_published":"2011-06-01T00:00:00Z","year":"2011","keyword":["Atmospheric Science"],"page":"2784-2800","quality_controlled":"1","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3876.1","open_access":"1"}],"publisher":"American Meteorological Society","article_processing_charge":"No","doi":"10.1175/2011jcli3876.1","type":"journal_article","_id":"9144","date_updated":"2022-01-24T13:52:46Z","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"oa":1,"user_id":"8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9","citation":{"mla":"Muller, Caroline J., et al. “Intensification of Precipitation Extremes with Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 24, no. 11, American Meteorological Society, 2011, pp. 2784–800, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1\">10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>.","apa":"Muller, C. J., O’Gorman, P. A., &#38; Back, L. E. (2011). Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. American Meteorological Society. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1\">https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>","ista":"Muller CJ, O’Gorman PA, Back LE. 2011. Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model. Journal of Climate. 24(11), 2784–2800.","chicago":"Muller, Caroline J, Paul A. O’Gorman, and Larissa E. Back. “Intensification of Precipitation Extremes with Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model.” <i>Journal of Climate</i>. American Meteorological Society, 2011. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1\">https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>.","short":"C.J. Muller, P.A. O’Gorman, L.E. Back, Journal of Climate 24 (2011) 2784–2800.","ieee":"C. J. Muller, P. A. O’Gorman, and L. E. Back, “Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model,” <i>Journal of Climate</i>, vol. 24, no. 11. American Meteorological Society, pp. 2784–2800, 2011.","ama":"Muller CJ, O’Gorman PA, Back LE. Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model. <i>Journal of Climate</i>. 2011;24(11):2784-2800. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3876.1\">10.1175/2011jcli3876.1</a>"},"issue":"11","month":"06","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"A cloud-resolving model is used to investigate the effect of warming on high percentiles of precipitation (precipitation extremes) in the idealized setting of radiative-convective equilibrium. While this idealized setting does not allow for several factors that influence precipitation in the tropics, it does allow for an evaluation of the response of precipitation extremes to warming in simulations with resolved rather than parameterized convection. The methodology developed should also be applicable to less idealized simulations.\r\n\r\nModeled precipitation extremes are found to increase in magnitude in response to an increase in sea surface temperature. A dry static energy budget is used to relate the changes in precipitation extremes to changes in atmospheric temperature, vertical velocity, and precipitation efficiency. To first order, the changes in precipitation extremes are captured by changes in the mean temperature structure of the atmosphere. Changes in vertical velocities play a secondary role and tend to weaken the strength of precipitation extremes, despite an intensification of updraft velocities in the upper troposphere. The influence of changes in condensate transports on precipitation extremes is quantified in terms of a precipitation efficiency; it does not change greatly with warming.\r\n\r\nTropical precipitation extremes have previously been found to increase at a greater fractional rate than the amount of atmospheric water vapor in observations of present-day variability and in some climate model simulations with parameterized convection. But the fractional increases in precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable in magnitude to those in surface water vapor concentrations (owing to a partial cancellation between dynamical and thermodynamical changes), and are substantially less than the fractional increases in column water vapor."}],"intvolume":"        24","publication_status":"published","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0894-8755"],"eissn":["1520-0442"]},"oa_version":"Published Version","title":"Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model","day":"01","author":[{"orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","first_name":"Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","last_name":"Muller"},{"first_name":"Paul A.","last_name":"O’Gorman","full_name":"O’Gorman, Paul A."},{"first_name":"Larissa E.","last_name":"Back","full_name":"Back, Larissa E."}],"date_created":"2021-02-15T14:39:57Z","article_type":"original","volume":24}]