@article{13256,
  abstract     = {The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM, or monsoon) are two giants of tropical climate. Here we assess the future evolution of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in climate simulations with idealized forcing of CO2 increment at a rate of 1% year-1 starting from a present-day condition (367 p.p.m.) until quadrupling. We find a monotonous weakening of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection with the increase in CO2. Increased co-occurrences of El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipoles (pIODs) in a warmer climate weaken the teleconnection. Co-occurrences of El Niño and pIOD are attributable to mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming that resembles a pIOD-type warming pattern in the Indian Ocean and an El Niño-type warming in the Pacific. Since ENSO is a critical precursor of the strength of the Indian monsoon, a weakening of this relation may mean a less predictable Indian monsoon in a warmer climate.},
  author       = {Goswami, Bidyut B and An, Soon Il},
  issn         = {2397-3722},
  journal      = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
  publisher    = {Springer Nature},
  title        = {{An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate}},
  doi          = {10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5},
  volume       = {6},
  year         = {2023},
}