Role of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean warming in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall trend

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has been declining since the 1950s. However, since 2002 it is reported to have revived. For these observed changes in the ISMR, several explanations have been reported. Among these explanations, however, the role of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) is missing despite being one of the warmest regions in the Indian Ocean, and monotonously warming. A recent study reported that EEIO warming impacts the rainfall over northern India. Here we report that warming in the EEIO weakens the low-level Indian summer monsoon circulation and reduces ISMR. A warm EEIO drives easterly winds in the Indo–Pacific sector as a Gill response. The warm EEIO also enhances nocturnal convection offshore the western coast of Sumatra. The latent heating associated with the increased convection augments the Gill response and the resultant circulation opposes the monsoon low-level circulation and weakens the seasonal rainfall.