Large deviations in random latin squares

In this note, we study large deviations of the number 𝐍 of intercalates ( 2×2 combinatorial subsquares which are themselves Latin squares) in a random 𝑛×𝑛 Latin square. In particular, for constant 𝛿>0 we prove that exp(−𝑂(𝑛2log𝑛))⩽Pr(𝐍⩽(1−𝛿)𝑛2/4)⩽exp(−Ω(𝑛2)) and exp(−𝑂(𝑛4/3(log𝑛)))⩽Pr(𝐍⩾(1+𝛿)𝑛2/4)⩽exp(−Ω(𝑛4/3(log𝑛)2/3)) . As a consequence, we deduce that a typical order- 𝑛 Latin square has (1+𝑜(1))𝑛2/4 intercalates, matching a lower bound due to Kwan and Sudakov and resolving an old conjecture of McKay and Wanless.